Gold Standard: Is AFI Fest’s opener the awards-season version of the SI cover jinx?

The AFI Fest’s opening night gala might be the award season’s equivalent of the Sports Illustrated cover jinx.

Consider the quartet of movies that have christened the Hollywood film festival the last four years -- “Love & Other Drugs,” “J. Edgar,” “Hitchcock” and “Saving Mr. Banks.” Each movie owned Oscar ambitions -- the last three had designs on a best picture nomination -- that ultimately went unrealized. And the academy roundly ignored all the illustrious actors involved, a list that includes the likes of Emma Thompson, Tom Hanks, Anthony Hopkins, Helen Mirren and Leonardo DiCaprio.

A coincidence? Of course. But it might give the makers of this year’s AFI Fest opener, “A Most Violent Year,” at least a little pause for thought. Because ... you know ... this.

Here’s a look at the awards-season prospects of the five movies playing at galas at this year’s AFI Fest, which begins in Hollywood Thursday.

‘A MOST VIOLENT YEAR’

J.C. Chandor’s crime drama tells the story of a couple (Oscar Isaacs and Jessica Chastain) trying to keep the temptations and realities of New York City, circa 1981, from ruining their lives. It’s a downbeat affair, leisurely paced and superbly acted (as you could imagine, given the leads).

The academy couldn’t be bothered with Chandor’s last movie, the superb survival story “All Is Lost,” starring Robert Redford. That cold shoulder leads to a certain amount of pessimism for this one, though the talented Chastain has to be nominated for something (doesn’t she?) this year, and her work here trumps what she did in “The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby” and “Interstellar.”

‘INHERENT VICE’

Paul Thomas Anderson’s highly anticipated adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s hippie detective story premiered last month at the New York Film Festival. Critics were mostly groovy on PTA’s stoner comedy, which stars Joaquin Phoenix, though a few found it “insular” and “too cool for school.”

While academy members are not completely averse to letting their freak flags fly, “Inherent Vice” will probably need to connect commercially and land a Golden Globe best picture comedy nomination for it to register in the best picture race. The film’s star, Joaquin Phoenix, likewise faces long odds in a lead actor category crowded with serious performances. Put it another way: Prosthetic nose > mutton chops with this bunch.

‘THE GAMBLER’

Nobody has seen this dark Mark Wahlberg crime drama remake about (yes) a gambler who pushes his luck (and his debt load) with the wrong people. But the trailer looks great. And director Rupert Wyatt revived the “Planet of the Apes” franchise, so who’s to say he can’t be the one to finally put Wahlberg into the thick of Oscar consideration?

‘THE HOMESMAN’

Hilary Swank has been hitting the trail hard for Tommy Lee Jones’ unorthodox western, which debuted at Cannes earlier this year to mixed reviews. She’s at least in the conversation in a lead actress race that is seen as thin, though there are plenty of worthwhile women from movies that opened earlier this year. Bottom line: Two-time Oscar winners should not be dismissed, even if they’re playing characters that could have been better developed.

‘FOXCATCHER’

“Foxcatcher,” director Bennett Miller’s account of U.S. Olympic wrestlers Mark and Dave Schultz’s complicated relationship with eccentric billionaire John du Pont, also premiered at Cannes. The reviews were sensational, if overstated. (We’re not quite as convinced as others the movie has that much to say about America, but maybe, like Paul Reiser in “Whiplash,” we were too busy sprinkling Raisinets into our popcorn.)

Steve Carell (du Pont) and Mark Ruffalo (Dave Schultz, the nice brother) are firmly in the mix in the lead and supporting actor categories, respectively. Channing Tatum, who plays the unstable, somber Schultz, Mark, might be the best of the trio, but he hasn’t been able to escape the long shadow of co-star Carell to find some footing in the race. The long-term prospects of both the film and its stars will depend on the success of a trio of late-arriving contenders -- “Unbroken,” “Selma,” “American Sniper.”

Twitter: @GlennWhipp